Every six in ludo asks a small question. Do you bring a piece out of the corner, or spend the six on a piece that is already running? Most players answer by habit. This piece of ludo strategy puts numbers behind the question. I build the game on Boardit, so I can check each of the ludo rules against the engine, but the advice is my own reading of the odds, not a tested law.
What does a piece in base really cost you?
Nothing can touch it. A piece waiting in the corner is out of reach of every rival, so it is perfectly safe. The cost is time. A six is the only key, and in my calculation the first one needs six throws to arrive on average, with a median of four.
The tail is long. In a run of three throws, 57.9% have no six at all. In a run of ten, 16.2% still have none. So a piece in base is safe, but it can sit there far longer than the average suggests.
When should a six bring a piece out?
Early, in my view. The reason is not the six itself but what the other throws are doing meanwhile.
While one piece is running, every throw without a six has a job: it moves that piece. The wait for the next six costs you nothing. Later the picture changes. Suppose your other pieces are home, or are waiting for an exact number. A piece still in base now turns the wait into waste. You throw, nothing can move, and the turn passes.
So the cheapest time to spend a six on leaving base is while your running pieces can use the throws between sixes. The dearest time is when the base piece is the only thing left.
One more point in its favour. A freshly released piece lands on its own front door, and a front door is one of the eight safe squares. Releasing a piece adds no danger until you move it off.
When is it right to leave a piece at home?
When the six is worth more somewhere else. Three cases come up.
1. The six captures. Taking a rival sends it back, and with extra throws left on you throw again.
2. The six brings a piece home exactly. The end of the journey wants one precise number, and you may not see it again soon.
3. The six lifts a piece out of trouble. A piece standing up to six squares in front of a rival faces a 16.7% hit from any single throw. A six that carries it to a star or beyond the rival's reach is worth a lot.
Outside those cases, I bring a piece out. That is close to the order the table uses when it plays for an absent person: capture, then home, then out of base, then the furthest piece. My only addition is the rescue.
What happens when a capture sends your piece back?
You are back to the wait, which averages six throws. If you still have pieces out you are not idle. If that was your only piece, you are.
This is why I protect a lone runner more than a crowd. In my calculation the whole trip for one piece is about 20.76 throws. Lose it at the halfway mark and you give up roughly ten throws of progress before the wait for a six even starts.
Does the rule change with house rules?
Yes, in two places. With the three-try switch on, a player with no piece out may keep throwing, up to three times, until a six shows. That shortens the wait a lot, and it makes leaving a piece in base less costly.
In Quick Ludo, where every player has just two, a piece in base is half your army. I would leave one at home only for a capture or an exact finish.
A habit to try tonight
Release a second runner while the first still has room to run. Keep a piece in base only when the six can capture, finish a piece or rescue one. Then watch how often you are stuck waiting late in a game. If it is often, your sixes were spent too late.
You can test this at Boardit's Ludo, free for up to four players. Play ludo online there, and in your next game of ludo with friends, note the games where an early second runner made the difference.
What the numbers leave out
They are averages for one piece. They say nothing about a table where the rival to your left plays for captures. Treat them as a starting point, then adjust to the people you play with.
Ahmed Moaz builds Boardit, a free browser game site.